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Department of Urban and Regional Planning
College of Environmental Design
King Abdulaziz University
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URP 425 : Regional Planning "1”
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(Two lectures per week, 90 minutes per lecture)
Brief Course Outlines
Aim of the Course:
This course aims to introduce several regional planning and development theories, with emphasis on the assumptions on which they were built and on the various philosophies and techniques linked to them. Students will be trained on how to apply theories with adaptation to the circumstances and conditions that prevail in the area of concern. Copying a theory as it is, regardless of differences between conditions of the area in which the theory was formulated and features of the area where the concepts of the theory will be applied, should be avoided, a matter that will be taught to students in a gradual manner, during this course.
References:
They are listed (Besides Keywords for net searching) at the end of the each handout. However, materials will occasionally be provided during Lectures.
Grading:
Attendance 10%
Note Taking 10%
Midterm Exam 30%
Final Exam 40%
Spontaneous Quizzes 10%
_______________________
Total 100%
Subjects of Lecturing:
- Basic definitions and questions about the need to plan, planning, regions, regional planning, various types of planning, levels of planning and types of regions
(One week)
- Delineation of Functional and Formal Regions, and Relevant Work Examples
(One week)
- Economic Base Theory : philosophy in interpreting the generation of job opportunities, measurement of relation between basic and supporting activities and limitations to theory
(Two weeks)
- Regional Economic Multipliers
(One week)
- Regional Economic input-out Tables
(One week)
- Location of Industries
(Two weeks)
- Central Place Theory
(One week)
- Growth Pole Theory
(One week)
- Gravity Models
(One week)
- Manpower Forecasting
(One week)
URP 425 : Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (1)
Basic Questions
Expectations:
Students are expected, by the end of these series of lectures, to know about several issues, some of which are as follows:
- Planning as a need rather than a luxury
- Meaning of planning and meaning of its components
- Philosophies about what is a region, and what is a regional planning
- Various types of Planning
- Levels of Planning
- Various types of planning that function at various levels
- Various types of regions
- Drawing quality lessons for planning and development in Saudi Arabia from these studied concepts, philosophies and definitions.
Basic Questions:
Q. Why do we need to plan?
Q. What is planning?
Q. What is Region?
Q. What is Regional Planning?
Q. What are the various types of planning?
Q. What are the various levels of Planning?
Q. What are the various types of regions?
Q. Why do we need to Plan?
Psychologists believe that human beings are planners by nature, at least for short-term range of action. But this does not explain the evolution in planning that has been going on throughout the last century. This evolution was led by leadership of government for development, and that was based on the belief that the free market conditions would (alone) bring about undesirable results such as:
* Inequalities in income distributions
* Limited provision of public goods and services
* Problems of unemployment
* Rapid rise in urban population and enterprises deserting rural areas.
* ………. Etc.
As a pro-active monitorial and amendment controls, formal planning emerged and got developed.
Q. What is Planning?
It has been difficult to derive an agreed-upon definition for planning. That is due to its so many different features: various aspects (social, economic, physical, etc.), various levels (local, regional, .. etc.), variety in time ranges (long term, medium term, short term), .. etc. For that, it was difficult to derive a concise, an abbreviated and a clear definition for planning.
Nevertheless, the most agreed-upon definition for planning has been tailored as follows:
"Sequence of Actions designed to solve problems and / or utilize potentials in the future"
The seven features of planning, embodied in this definition, are as follows:
1. Sequence:
This means that the steps embodied in planning are sequential. Each step is a pre-requisite for the one coming after it. Therefore, the success of a step is required in order for the forthcoming steps to succeed.
(Note: It is a sequence but not a chain: think about the differences)
Example:
objectives work plan physical survey
analysis socio-economic survey analysis
synthesis development of alternative solutions
implementation and budgeting program
2. Actions:
This word implies dynamism: it is not passive. For example, data collection requires the designing of survey sheets and of questionnaires, the drawing of a sampling frame and a survey methodology and the actual data gathering – likewise, the other steps in planning are activities, and each one could be disaggregated into sub-activities.
3. Designed:
The actions embodied in planning are designed for the purpose of the particular study. The objectives, policies and methodologies are designed to fulfill the aims specified.
4. Solve Problems:
The planning goals, objectives and policies should be oriented towards solving problems: e.g. improving building conditions, curing traffic problems,…etc.
5. And/Or:
Means either both or one of them.
6. Utilize Potentials:
The planning process could be oriented towards transferring a potential to a tangible benefit: e.g. transferring plots to parking spaces.
Note: Successful planning treats problems as potentials.
7. In the Future:
Actions, implementations and follow-ups happen in the future. Planning uses past information to shape-up future actions.
Q. What is Region?
Region, as a geographical space, varies in definition according to the purpose of the definition: e.g., the Middle Eastern region, the Region of the Arabian Gulf, the Makkah Region, the Central Region of the Jeddah City, the Penalty Region in a Football Playground; each of these is named "Region" and linked to a particular identity. However, for our purpose, a region is:
"A geographical area which is larger than a city and smaller than a nation"
It is bridging in geographical size between a city and a nation, allowing for regional planning to be in a medium position between national planning at the top and urban/local planning at the bottom of the hierarchy.
Q. What is Regional Planning?
Having identified the meanings of "planning" and of "region", the definition of regional planning could be tailored join the two, as follows:
"Sequence of actions designed to solve problems and/or utilize potentials in the future and linked to a geographical area which is larger than a city and smaller than a nation"
Q. What are the various Types of Planning?
Angle of Vision
Types of Planning
Definition / Example
Nature
Physical
e.g. land-use plans, deal mostly with physical components
Economic
e.g. National plans, deal mostly with economic issues
Distribution of Tasks/Budgets
Allocative
Allocating tasks / budgets as the situation was in the past
Innovative
Monitor allocations in the light of performance and achievements .. etc..
Objectives
Multi Objective
Several objectives: e.g. improving roads-lighting, pavements, ..etc.
Single objective
One objective : e.g. improve lighting in streets = one issue
Implementation
Indicative
Broad directions : e.g. master plans
Imperative
Detailed directions : e.g. action plans, building plans.
Q. What are the levels of Planning?
There are three main levels of planning:
1. National Planning:
It draws the long-term goals and strategies. The strategies are comprehensive, spatially and issue wise. The lower levels of planning should read from the national planning for the drawing of the more detailed and site-specific development programs.
Examples for these strategic tools are the Saudi Five-year National Development Plans.
2. Regional Planning:
This should work at the regional level, to provide vertical and horizontal linkages. The vertical linkages should work from up to down –reading for the region in concern from the national plan, and from down to up – advising the forthcoming national plan with regard to the future development programs, in the region. The horizontal linkages coordinate the programs of the several institutions, which work at the regional and even local levels.
3. Local Planning:
It works at local levels, and reads from the concerned regional plan for the chapping up of the detailed local plans. The master plans, action-area plans and other local types of plans are examples for local planning.
National Plans
Regional Plans
Local Plans
Reading from above for more detailed programs
Advising from below with regard to the required future programs.
Q. What type of planning does work most at each level?
Levels of planning
Types and Features of Planning
National
Economic, Allocative, Multi-objective and Indicative
Regional
Mixed Types
Local
Physical, Innovative, Single-objective and Imperative
Q. What are the various types of Regions?
There are three famous types of Regions:
1. Administrative Region :
A geographical area delineated as a region according to pure administrative considerations. Regional science has little to do with such delineation.
2. Formal Region:
A geographical area, which is uniform or homogenous in term of selected criteria. The criteria could be physical (e.g. topography, climate, vegetation) or economic (e.g. industrial or agricultural types, income or unemployment levels,…)
= Fixed Boundaries
3. Functional Region:
A geographical area, which displays a certain functional coherence, an interdependence of parts, when defined on the basis of certain criteria ( e.g. frequency of bus trips)
= Changing Boundaries
References:
* Glasson J, 1983. An Introduction to Regional Planning, British Library, U.K.
- Key words for net searching by subject:
(Planning)
(Regions)
(Regional Planning)
(Levels of Planning)
(Types of Planning)
URP 425 : Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (2)
Delineation of Regions
Expectations :
These lectures should teach and train students on :
- Distinguishing between formal and functional Regions
- Delineating Functional Regions
- Delineating Formal Regions
- Solving several work-tasks with regard to the acquired techniques of regional delineations.
Delineations of Functional Regions:
Going back to the definition, the functional region should encompass coherent and interlinked parts, as long as they form a unique geographical space. Bearing in mind the criteria explained in the definition, there are two famous methods for delineating functional regions:
1. The Gravitational Analysis :
This method adopts Newton's theory to develop gravity methods and tables, predicting the possible gravity among various land-uses, existing or intended land-uses, and then delineating the parts (according to coherence measures) into functional regions.
2. The Flow Analysis :
This method measures the actual traffic flows amongst parts and joins the points were traffic volumes reach the lowest acceptable measures, and links them to encompass inter-linked parts in a single functional region. Flow of traffic is taken to reflect actual functional contacts and linkages.
However, identifying parts that form functional regions should help planners to plan for supporting and sustaining such linkages, and for facilitating them with programs, such as roads capable of coping with traffic volumes.
Note: Identifying functional regions / areas within cities could be of a great help to urban planners. Can you think of examples from Jeddah?
Delineation of Formal Regions :
Going back to the definition, similarity / homogeneity in features is the main criterion for principle in grouping parts into a formal region, as long as the geographical continuity is achieved. There are two famous methods for delineating a formal region:
1. The Factor Analysis Method :
The factors could be (e.g.) industrial structures, physical features, etc. The prime criterion is homogeneity, allowing parts to display similarity in terms of such features. When similarity is based on physical features (e.g. topography, vegetation, etc.), boundaries tend to be fixed for relatively long period of time.
2. The Weighed Index Method :
This method depends on weighing features in order to group the homogenous parts (from the view point of such features) in unique regions, as long as the geographical continuity is fulfilled. Example is as follows:
1) Suppose you have an area, consisted of parts that have values related to two selected features: unemployment levels and average per-capita income. You are asked to identify the possible formal regions embodied in this schematic example.
First : Identify features that should be weighed
Second : Identify values of the features in each part
Third : Identify the weighing criteria
(e.g. in our case, as below)
2 grades = 1% unemployed
1 grade = 50 below 1000 income
Note: Criteria should be in same direction.
Fourth : Apply criteria to identify parts with homogeneity, and delineate the neighboring parts in single regions
Unemployment
Pre-capita income
2%
A
1000
2%
B
1000
2%
C
1000
1%
D
850
2%
E
1000
3%
F
850
1.5%
G
950
2%
H
950
3%
I
900
2%
J
950
2%
K
900
4%
L
950
Applying weight criteria
Region 2
A
4
B
4
C
4
D
5
E
4
F
9
Region 1
G
4
H
5
I
8
J
5
K
8
L
9
References :
* Cullingworth J.B, 1985. Town and Country Planning, British Library, U.K.
- Key words for net searching, by subject:
(Types of Regions)
(Delineation of Regions)
(Functional Regions)
(Formal Regions)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (3)
The Economic Base Theory
Expectations :
Having studied the contents of these lectures, students should be able to :
- Define basic and non-basic (supporting) activities
- Mention and explain the chain of interactions between these two types of activities
- Explain the impacts of enhancement, stagnation and decline in basic activities on the whole economy in general and on job generation in particular
- Spotlight some of the limitations of this theory
- Learn quality lessons from these scenarios for the future of efforts to enhance economy and job generation in Saudi Arabia.
The Economic Base Theory
This theory believes that regional economy consists of two types of activities as follows:
1. Basic Activities :
These activities export goods and/or services to locations outside the concerned region or to customers coming temporarily to the concerned region (e.g. tourists, students from abroad, etc.) = a revenue earner.
2. Non-Basic (or supporting) Activities :
These activities provide for the needs of the local residents in productive and market area terms.
The theory also believes that the basic activities are the prime mover of the economic evolution and job generation, due to the following cause-and-effect chain of processes:
Basic activities Revenues per-capital income demand
Generation of jobs non-basic (or supporting) activities Supply
The theory believes that three possible changes could happen to this chain, starting by the basic activities:
1. an increase (improvement) in basic activities leads to economic prosperity and active job generation.
2. the no-change situation in basic activities leads to stagnation in economy and in job generation.
3. the decline situation in basic activities leads to recession in economy and in job generation.
In this respect, the successful approach – from the view point of the theory – to improve economy and to generate jobs, is through enhancing basic activities.
Q1 : How to measure the causal relation between basic activities and the non-basic (supporting) activities?
Q2 : Are there limitations to the theory?
Answers will be give during next class.
(REM) Regional employment multiplier = Jobs in basic activities
Jobs in supporting activities
When REM = 1/3, that means, the average ability of basic activities to generate jobs in supporting activities is three-fold.
The question now is: How would this value be helpful to planners?
1. Planners will be able to estimate current total jobs (how?) and total jobs in basic and in non-basic activities in the concerned economy.
2. Knowing the different values in the past and the expected changes in the future, number of the expected new jobs in the future could be estimated. This will help to strategically plan for improving situation in job generation and in planning for quantity and specializations of new entrants to labor-force, so that unemployment level could always be reduced.
3. The values could be used to compare relevant situations throughout time in a region and/or amongst regions.
Limitations to the Economic Base Theory :
1. Equal changes in the number of jobs generated in similar basic activities, may lead to widely varying impacts on the chain.
2. Not all basic activities increase wages in a direct accordance with the increase in productivity and returns as suggested by the theory.
3. There is difficulty in technically and sharply identifying what are basic activities and what are non-basic activities in a certain economy.
4. There is a difficulty in geography, due to the fact that a basic activity in a smaller area may become a non-basic in a larger area.
5. There is a need for policies, which ensure that the steps in the suggested chain of causes and effects actually happen. The chain does not activate automatically.
References :
* Richardson H.W., 1982, Regional and Urban Economics. Richard Clay Ltd., U.K.
- Keywords for net searching, by subject:
(Economic Base Theory)
(Basic Activities)
(Economic Prosperity)
Economic Recession)
Economic Stagnation)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (4)
The Regional Economic Multiplier
Expectations :
Having studied the contents of these lectures, students should be able to :
- Explain the meaning of this concept, and its role in measuring the extent to which local expenditure does benefit the local spatial and economic environments
- Identify the components of this concept.
- Suggest and compare the strategic scenarios for the development of regions in the light of the values of their economic multipliers.
The Regional Economic Multiplier :
This multiplier believes that an injection of money into an economy causes cyclic beneficial effects in rounds, happening within the local economy, as long as it does not leak out to other economies. The extent to which the concerned economy keeps the effects of such injection depends on the extent to which leakages are kept minimum. The leakages are usually as follows:
1. Savings: Proportions of incomes that go to saving, and hence leak out of the economic processing sectors.
2. Taxation : Income is reduced by taxes, likewise, property and other taxes, leak out of the processing sectors.
3. Imports : The income spent on goods produced outside local economies does leak out of the processing sectors.
Regional economic Multiplier = Injections / Leakages
Example :
Suppose that the regional economic multipliers for regions A, B & C = 6, 2 and 8 respectively. Explain that and suggest strategies to cure the situation in the region that has the worst condition.
Answer :
The value A = 6 means that 1/6 of the injected money gets leaked out of the economy in one round (e.g. a year). The similar leakages for B and C = 1/2 & 1/8 respectively. Accordingly, Region (B) shows the worst situation, followed by region A.
The strategies suggested for helping region (B) which shows the worst condition could be on of three alternatives:
1. Increasing injections only = the least effective alternative
2. Reducing leakages only.
3. Increasing injections and (simultaneously) reducing leakages = the best alternative.
Note : Knowing the values of the economic multiplier helps in comparison, in predicting situation in future and in suggesting development strategies a long the lines drawn above.
References :
* Richardson H.W., 1982. Regional and Urban Economics. Richard Clay Ltd., U.K.
- Keywords for net searching, by the subject:
(Regional Economics Multipliers)
(Economic Injections)
(Economic Leakages).
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (5)
Regional Economic Input-Output Tables
Expectations :
Students are expected to:
- Understand the economic impacts of the give and take relations amongst economic sectors in general and amongst industries in particular.
- Draw a simulation for the complete economic input-output tables, and explain their components
- Explain the contents of such tables, and suggest strategic guidance for future development in the light of the values shown in the cells of the tables.
The complete table encompasses four sectors :
Sector 1 : Sales from an industry to another = intermediate or processing sector.
Sector 2 : Sales from domestic industries to local market
Sector 3 : Accounts for what industries do take from the sectors outside the processing sectors (e.g. investments and imports)
Sector 4 : Accounts for what local markets take from the sectors outside the local economy (e.g. imports)
Knowing these values, planners should be able to:
1. Know the grand total, which measures the overall give and take relations in the concerned economy. This should help in comparisons and predictions.
2. Identify the weak linkages in order to strengthen them, and the strong linkages in order to support them, and the missing linkages in order to establish them (if possible).
3. Reduce accounts in sector (4) for the benefit of sector (2).
Note: There is difficulty in formulating this table due to the high number of spontaneous data required. The table shows the values that reflect situations in a point in time.
Regional Economic Input-Output Tables:
These tables measure the give-take relations between (among) sectors of the economy and especially among industries.
Features of the complete table are as follows:
1. n x n matrix
2. Describes the economic inter-sectoral linkages (i.e. the give and take relations).
3. Rows outputs
Columns inputs
4. Involves four sectors, as has already been explained.
References :
* Richardson H.W., 1982. Regional and Urban Economy. Rechard Clay Ltd., U.K.
- Keywords for net searching, by subject:
(Economic spectral linkages)
(Industrial Linkages)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (6)
Location of Industries
Expectations :
- Ability to scientifically comment on the spatial and economic role of industries in development.
- Ability to utilize the concepts embodied in the least cost theory in interpreting the ways of which industries chose locations in free market conditions, and how policies and regulations influence industrial locations.
- To learn lessons for the laws and regulations that influence industrial locations in Saudi Arabia.
Location of Industries :
Role of industries in the economy has already been indirectly identified: refer back to the concepts of basic activities, employment multipliers and economic multipliers.
The question therefore is: How does an industry choose its location?
In order to answer this question, two main issues should be clarified:
1. Theory is a simplified model for real life. It is built on assumptions, and the adequacy of using it in a certain society depends on the adequacy of those assumptions as features of the society.
2. Industrial problems involve the use of inputs ( factors of production = land, capital, labor, raw materials and investment) to produce outputs (goods and services, which in turn need markets to sell their products) as efficiently as possible.
Bearing these two points in mind, vast range of attempts had failed to philosophy the ways by which industries choose locations, for reasons such as:
- The wide range of industrial sectors, including primary (e.g. mining), secondary (e.g. manufacturing) and tertiary (e.g. services and trade).
- The wide variety in location requirements of firms, even within the same sector (a primary, a secondary or a tertiary), since locations of markets and factors of production differ significantly (unlike normal community facilities such as schools, clinics, .. etc. )
Nevertheless, Englander, Alanson, Von Thunen, Mil, Richardo, Adam Smith and others attempted to tailor theories for industrial locations. The attempt of Alfred Weber (1909) is still the probably most famous, and was as follows:
The Least Cost Theory :
The main idea of Alfred Weber (a German) in the context of this theory is that an investor would choose to locate his industry where costs were least.
The theory in based on two assumptions :
1. All industries have fair accessibility to markets, and customers stay in their areas and do not move to reside nearby industries (likewise the laborers).
2. The raw materials exist in few local places only.
With these assumptions valid, Weber believed that three factors influence industrial locations.
1
Material Transport
Costs
2
Labor Transport Costs
3
Agglomerative and Deglomerative Factors
1. Material Transport Costs :
Weber First considered the effect of the material transport costs as directly proportional to the distance moved and the weight carried. Thus the point of the least material (raw and product) cost is that at which the total weight movement of inputs and products is minimum (say point "T" in the drawing below).
To identify point "T" (the least material transport cost), Weber used this equation:
Material transport cost = weight of inputs
weight of products
The possibilities of the result are:
< 1, means the location of industry would be market oriented.
> 1, means the location of industry would be material oriented.
= 1, means the transport cost has no effect on the location of industry.
2. Labor Transport Costs :
Weber then argued that if the labor transport cost would be minimum at a certain point (say L) the investor would now weigh the equation between the two points: "T" which fulfills the need to meet the least material transport cost and "L" which meets the least labor transport costs.
He would choose to locate in the point "K" which has the least material and labor transport cost.
3. Agglomerative and Deglomerative Factors:
Weber then argued that the chosen location could be at a point other than "K" which meets the least cost of transporting materials and labors, due to the better benefits attained from being agglomerated with other industries (e.g. sharing infrastructure costs and benefits) or deglomerated from them (e.g. getting vast storage areas).
Note: The theory was tailored when the free market condition were the only regulators of locations, before the current evolution in the transportation and regulation means.
Question :
To what extent are those factors still valid in influencing to locations of industries?
References :
* Reading materials will be provided in due course of time:
- Keywords for net searching, by subject:
(Location of Industries)
(Cost of Labor Transport)
(Cost of Material Transport)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (7)
Central Place Theory
Expectations :
- Ability to trace back this theory to its Islamic roots.
- Understanding the assumption and basic questions on which the formulation of this theory was built.
- Understanding and utilizing the two concepts embodied in the theory: the range and the threshold.
- Understanding the philosophy of the theory, and utilizing it in analyzing spatial structure of settlements and towns in Saudi Arabia.
Central Place Theory :
- AlMugaddasi was perhaps the first to describe settlements in hierarchical descriptive terms (Berry Conkling and Ray, 1976). He used the hierarchy in army to express the hierarchical structures of Islamic settlements.
Amsar
Kings
Qasabat
Ministers
Mudun
Cavalrymen
Qura
Soldiers
Features of the hierarchy :
1. Roles and responsibilities get broader as the rank becomes higher.
2. It is possible to get promoted up the hierarchy, but it becomes more difficult as the rank goes up.
3. The top is tiny and the base is very broad. This means that number of places decreases as rank goes up towards the top of the hierarchy, and they opposite is correct.
In 1933, Walter Christaller (a German scholar) attempted to answer the question of : Are there laws controlling and chapping-up numbers, sizes and distributions of settlements?
He approached answering this question pragmatically. He studied the structure of settlements in Southern Germany, and used its features as assumptions for his theory, as follows:
1. A plain agricultural area, with no constraints to development, with only homogenous market towns.
2. Location of goods and services there were determined by pure free market conditions.
Q. How could this equal start bring about differences?
To help in analyzing the findings of his pragmatic study, Christaller manufactured two important terminologies, as follows:
1. Range of goods:
The distance up to which customers will still be willing to travel in order to purchase a good offered at a certain place.
2. Threshold:
The minimum level of demand required to sustain the existence of a certain function.
Having identified these two concepts, Christeller summarized the findings of his study in what became known as "the Central Place Theory", as follows:
1. He acknowledged the existence of various types of towns (e.g. mining, holy, ports, etc.). However, he related his analysis to the "market town" as the smallest unit in his study: It provides goods and services for its surrounding market area. The boundary of the market area can be identified by the range of the goods existing within the market town. Therefore, market towns locate centrally within their market areas.
2. Expensive goods are more specialized: they are needed less frequently and by less number of people. They are called high ordered goods, and need to be exposed to high number of population in order to attain feasible "threshold". Each one of them requires large range.
They are fewer in number but larger in terms of range, and occupy higher ranks in the hierarchy of settlements.
3. Necessities are provided in lower-ordered places to offer goods that are purchased frequently by most population. Therefore, they require small ranges since they are capable of attaining feasible demand within small ranges. They tend to be high in number, and hence occupy low ranks in the hierarchy of settlements.
4. Therefore, a hierarchy of central places exists with functions sufficient for customers to travel bearable distances (bearable ranges) in order to buy goods, as well as for producers to attain at least the levels of acceptable and feasible thresholds in order to keep functioning.
5. The process of goods locating themselves according to the measures of range and threshold happens through long experience of "trail and error".
6. Christaller used hexagons instead of circles to express the structure of settlements since circles leave strange unserviced areas = unreal.
August Loach (1939) – A German economist – used the demand curve to "theoretically" prove the findings of Christaller correct: each good has its own demand curve. Illustrations will be drawn on board, during lecturing time.
References :
* Baskin C.W., 1966. Translation for the Christaller's Central Places of Southern Germany. Prentice Hall, U.S.A.
- Keywords for net searching by subject:
(Central Place Theory)
(Hierarchy of Spaces)
(Range of Goods)
(Threshold).
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (8)
The Growth Pole Theory
Expectations :
- Understanding the assumptions and philosophies of the theory.
- Understanding the central development role of the propulsive industry and the conditions that activate such role.
- Drawing lessons for the future of industrial development in Saudi Arabia in the light of the findings of the theory.
The Growth Pole Theory :
This theory is traced back to the French Scholar: Professor Francioa Parroux (in 1955). He was interested in analyzing the various channels through which concentrated economic functions can spread positive impacts to the surrounding areas.
Perroux firstly differentiated between three types of space and then related his analysis to the second one: space as defined by a plan, space as a field of forces and space as homogenous aggregate. He named the second type "Abstract Space".
He formulated his hypothesis as follows: Development does not appear everywhere and all at once: it rather appears in points, with variable intensities. It spreads along various channels and has varying terminal effects for the economy.
He found that, under free-market conditions, industries concentrated around each other's due to the factor of "functional Linkages" as the only reason: sharing integrated materials and services.
The concentrated industries got developed and flourished, led by the role of what he called the "Propulsive Industry": it is the most rapidly growing and expanding industry, with the highest functional linkages (direct and indirect) with all the surrounding concentrated industries. When it grows, it pulls all the other surrounding industries to growth, and vise versa.
The ability of the concentrated industries to spread or disperse benefits to the areas in surrounding areas was attributed by Perroux to the role of the linkages with the factors of production (labor, raw materials, capital, etc.) as channels for spreading benefits.
The ability of the concentrated industries to disperse benefit to the surrounding areas was called later by the Swedish Scientist Mydral (1957) and by the American Scientist Hirschmann (1958) as the mechanisms of spread and trickling, respectively. They also respectively called the ability of grouped industries to concentrate around each other's and attract factors of production as the mechanisms of backwash and polarization.
Mydral (1957) Hirschman (1958)
Backwash = Polarization
Spread = Trickling
The Philosophies that were tailored by Perroux, Myrdal and Hirschmann were grouped together to from what has become known as the "Growth Pole Theory".
References :
* Friedmann J. and Alnoso-W. (eds), 1975. Regional Policy Reading in Theory and Application. Massachusetts Institute, U.S.A.
- Keyword for net searching by subject:
(Growth Pole Theory)
(Propulsive Industry)
(Polarization of Factors of Production)
(Spread of Industrial Benefits)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1". Handout No. (9)
Gravity Models in Transportation Planning
Expectations
- Understanding the analogy of adapting Newton's laws of Physics in interpreting linkages amongst coherent built up areas.
- Knowing and naming some types of spatial interactions (e.g. work-trip distributions).
- Calculating actual and potential interactions amongst spaces, and suggesting policies for physical linkages (e.g. inter-area road links).
- Study examples for applying this technique to parts of Jeddah.
Transportation Linkages :
Transport linkages amongst built-up parts should (in hierarchy and capacity terms) reflect their functional roles. To test levels of interaction amongst areas, planners developed "gravity modes" they were analogically borrowed from the Newton's law of gravity, as will be explained shortly.
Some Types of Spatial Interactions:
Producer
Spatial Relation
Attractor
Workers residences
Work Trip Distribution
Work places
Children residences
School Trip Distributions
Schools
Residential areas
Recreation Trip Distribution
Recreation areas
Interaction Matrix :
This matrix is used to record the values of interactions amongst various types of activities and places involving producers and attractors.
Producers = origins
Attractors = Destinations
Zone 1
Zone 2
3
Total Interactions Produced
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Total Interactions Attracted
The Analogical Utilization of the Newton's Law :
Intensity of interaction (Gij) between area (i) and area (j) is a function of the relative attractiveness of each of these two areas (Wi and Wj) and it is inversely proportional to some function of the distance between them (dij).
GiJ = K Wi Wj dij-?
Where K and ? are predetermined constants
This equation was developed to another form as follows:
Tij = K Oi Dj dij-?
Where (in a case of work-trip distribution):
Tij = Number of Trips made by residents in zone (i) to jobs in zone (j)
Oi = Number of workers living in zone (i).
Dj = Number of additional jobs available in zone (j)
Dij = Distance between zone (i) and zone (j)
? = the travel distance within the two areas.
K = Constant for comparative estimations.
Example :
Zone 1 Zone 2
4 Miles
If ? = 2 miles. Calculate the potential value for interactions between workers in Zone (1) and jobs in Zone (2).
Solution
T1 2 = K O1 D2 d1 2-?
= 1 x 200 x 200 x 4-2
= 40000 / 16 = 2500
Utilization
The values in the cells of the interaction matrix could be compared and contrasted, and the cells with target values would reflect the need for roads with larger capacities to link the concerned areas, and vice versa.
Note:
This model is used to estimate the potential interactions. For the real estimations of traffic volumes, studies based on actual origin-destination surveys and analysis are more accurate.
References :
* Various Handouts will be given in class, prior to lecture time.
- Keywords for net searching, by subjects:
(Gravitational Models)
(Interactions Models)
(Origins-Destination Studies)
URP 425 – Regional Planning "1" Handout No. (10) : Manpower Forecasting
Expectations :
- Forecasting demand for labor
- Forecasting supply of labor
- Forecasting the gap between labor supply and demand, and suggesting corrective policies.
- Applying the acquired information in learning for the future of manpower and employment planning in Saudi Arabia.
Manpower Forecasting :
Change in welfare of people depends on :
1. Change in rate of growth of employment.
2. Rate of growth of output or production per person.
We already (within the context of the economic base theory and the economic multiplier) came through how to estimate (or forecast) changes in employment. It is also important to briefly explore how to estimate (or forecast) change in the other part of the equation : that is labor.
Forecasting Demand for Labor
There are two prominent methods:
1. Enquiry method:
This method assumes that the required future manpower is already well-known (or can best be estimated) by employers. It is relatively reliable, especially on the short-term (1 – 2 years).
2. Statistical Method:
The future evolution of manpower demand is deduced by the forecaster from recorded past and from present trends. This involves tabulating performance of demands for labour over the past (say) 10 years, and then using this to forecast the figure to a medium term in future.
Supply of Labors :
Several steps are usually applied:
- Forecasting population in work-age (e.g. over 15 years and under 60 years of age).
- Multiplying by activity rate, to find out the population in work-age who are able and welling to work.
- Subtracting the already employed people, to find out the unemployed workforce.
- Adding the new entrants to workforce and subtracting the leavers, using survival and activity rates.
Forecasting the Gap between Supply and Demand :
- This usually happens through classifying demand for labor according to their fields of specialization, and applying the same to the quantities of supply (and applying quantitative calculations accordingly).
- This could be used to advise the future manpower strategies regarding the required measures for tailoring the future educational and training programs in the light of the requirements of the job markets.
References :
* Various: Handouts will be given in class, prior to lecture time.
- Keywords for net searching, by subject:
(Labor supply)
(Demand for Labors)
(Manpower Forecasting).
URP – 425 : Regional Planning "1"
Example for Examination Questions
1. Define the concept of regional economic multiplier, and provide examples for how it could be useful for planners to draw scenarios for strategic economic development.
2. How do you evaluate the conditions that currently influence location of industries in the Saudi cities, in the light of what you studied within the context of the least cost theory?
3. Define the propulsive industry, and comment on the conditions that lead to its existence and continual operations.
4. How would you utilize the values provided in the cells of an interaction gravity matrix?
5. Can we stratify places in Saudi Arabia in a hierarchy similar to the one explained within the context of the central place theory? Comment on the answer.
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